Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
I assess a near coin-flip but slightly favorable chance that Benjamin Netanyahu will be sworn in as Israel's next prime minister after the 27 October 2026 election, because his durable political machine and coalition prospects balance significant legal, political, and electoral headwinds.
Analysis
From an institutional and market standpoint, Netanyahu remains one of Israel's most powerful political actors with a large, organized voter base and a party infrastructure (Likud) capable of high turnout and rapid campaign mobilization; these strengths translate into a nontrivial baseline chance to lead the next government. The current market-implied probability (Yes 36.5%) suggests traders see his path as plausible but underdog-ish, and my assessment adjusts that upward slightly because markets can underweight tail events like coalition horse-trading and leadership durability.
Historically Netanyahu has proven exceptionally resilient: he has recovered from electoral setbacks, navigated coalition breakdowns, and maintained influence while under legal pressure; that track record argues for a persistent probability of returning to office even after a weak showing. Conversely, long incumbency combined with ongoing legal exposure and public fatigue raises the ceiling for opposition mobilization and creates asymmetric downside risk relative to a challenger, so his reappointment is far from assured.
Coalition arithmetic and the post-election bargaining environment are decisive: Israel's multiparty Knesset means no single party will govern alone, so Netanyahu's prospects depend less on raw plurality and more on his ability to assemble a viable coalition of right-wing, religious, and pragmatic partners while avoiding defections or kingmaking maneuvers by smaller blocs. External shocks — a sudden security crisis, an economic downturn, or a dramatic shift in legal proceedings — could sharply swing voter preferences or coalition bargaining power between now and the election, making short-term polling volatile and increasing the value of an experienced, well-connected operator like Netanyahu but also magnifying risks tied to his polarizing image and legal status.
Arguments
For
- Netanyahu has a durable, well-funded party apparatus capable of strong voter mobilization and rapid campaign response.
- He has a proven track record of returning to power after setbacks, demonstrating high personal political resilience.
- Right-wing and religious parties that reliably partner with Likud increase his odds of assembling a governing majority if seat counts are competitive.
- In volatile security environments, voters often prefer experienced leaders with established foreign-policy networks, favoring Netanyahu.
- Fragmentation of the opposition across multiple lists can prevent any single anti-Netanyahu bloc from easily forming a majority.
- Parliamentary maneuvers, coalition deals, and backroom negotiations have in the past enabled Netanyahu to form governments despite adversity.
Against
- Ongoing legal troubles and the perception of corruption erode swing and moderate voter support and empower calls for change.
- Long incumbency and public fatigue can drive turnout and strategic voting for a broad anti-Netanyahu coalition.
- Some potential coalition partners are politically toxic to moderate kingmakers, making some majority combinations unworkable for Netanyahu.
- If opposition parties coordinate pre- or post-election, they can assemble a majority without needing to win a single large party plurality.
- International diplomatic consequences or loss of external backing could reduce Netanyahu's leverage in coalition bargaining.
- A major, unexpected political event (defection, scandal, or conviction) in the run-up to government formation could abruptly end his path to office.
Key drivers
- Pre-election public opinion and polling trends that determine Likud's seat share and the opposition's cohesion.
- Coalition bargaining after the election among right-wing, religious, and centrist parties that determines whether Netanyahu can secure a Knesset majority.
- Legal developments in Netanyahu's ongoing cases, including plea bargaining or major legal rulings that affect his political viability or time horizon.
- Security events or military operations that can shift voter sentiment toward experienced wartime leadership or conversely punish the incumbent.
- Voter turnout dynamics, particularly among right-wing and religious constituencies where Netanyahu's machine traditionally excels.
- Opposition strategy and unity, including whether centrist and left-wing parties coordinate to form a single viable alternative or fragment.
Risk factors
- A unified and electorally successful anti-Netanyahu coalition that wins a clear governing majority.
- A decisive legal ruling or conviction that materially weakens Netanyahu's authority or political capital before government formation.
- Major defections from Likud or allied parties during coalition negotiations that leave Netanyahu unable to command a majority.
- A security or economic shock that triggers widespread protest or shifts voter preferences away from the incumbent coalition.
- Emergence of a new charismatic leader who consolidates the center and attracts disaffected right-wing voters.
- International pressure or diplomatic shifts that make certain coalition partners politically toxic and thus reduce Netanyahu's coalition options.
Scenarios
Best case
Netanyahu wins either a plurality large enough to anchor a right-of-center coalition or skillfully brokers deals with small parties to secure a narrow majority, his legal situation remains manageable or is deferred, and a security environment favors experienced incumbency, resulting in his swearing-in as prime minister.
Most likely
The election yields a fragmented Knesset with roughly even strengths between blocs, leaving coalition bargaining pivotal; Netanyahu remains a leading contender but must rely on complex deals and concessions, producing a close contest in which he has a plausible but not dominant chance to be sworn in.
Worst case
Opposition parties coalesce and win a clear majority or key right-wing allies defect or refuse to serve with him due to legal or strategic concerns, and a damaging legal outcome or political scandal removes or delegitimizes Netanyahu from contention, leading to a different individual being sworn in.
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