Edges for May 19, 2026

I assess a better-than-even chance that IMF Portwatch will publish a daily Strait of Hormuz transit count of at least 20 by May 31, 2026, driven by the channel's usual high throughput but constrained by the short remaining window and regional risks.

I assess a materially greater than market but still limited chance that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee in 2028, driven by his base strength and name recognition but constrained by legal and political headwinds.

Given the market-implied probability and the lack of actionable injury or lineup news, I assess the Spurs have a roughly one-in-three chance to win this game, slightly higher than the current market price due to variance in single-game outcomes and limited public information.

I assess an 82% probability that Neymar will take the field for Brazil at the 2026 World Cup, driven by his ongoing professional activity, star status and Brazil's incentive to include experienced attackers, tempered by injury and selection risks.

I assess a 72% probability that NVIDIA will be the largest company by market cap on June 30, 2026, reflecting strong AI-driven momentum and market positioning but acknowledging meaningful downside risks from a market correction, disappointing guidance, or competitor/corporate actions by other mega-caps.

I assess a 20% probability that NVIDIA will be the second-largest company by market cap on June 30, 2026, reflecting a low but non-negligible chance driven by continued AI momentum and Nvidia-specific catalysts versus the large incumbent market caps and macro/regulatory headwinds.

I assess a strong but not certain probability that the Bank of England will leave Bank Rate unchanged at the June 18, 2026 meeting, with most market participants currently priced for a pause but upside inflation or wage surprises remaining meaningful risks.

NVIDIA is very likely to be the largest company by market cap on May 31, 2026, but nontrivial tail risks keep this from being effectively certain; I estimate about a 90% chance of a Yes outcome.

Marine Le Pen faces substantial structural and electoral obstacles but cannot be ruled out entirely; I assess her chance of winning the 2027 French presidency at 12%. This is higher than the market-implied 5.5% because Macron is ineligible for a third term and RN’s base strength gives a plausible path in a fragmented field, but her personal negatives and the two-round system keep the probability low.

I assess a low but non-zero probability that Ethereum will hit $10,000 by December 31, 2026; major bullish macro and crypto-specific catalysts could push it there, but the required market move is large and the time remaining is short.

I assess a low but non-negligible 8% chance that the Fed will cut the upper bound of the federal funds rate between December 16, 2025 and the end of the January 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting, largely because an abrupt recession or financial stress could force an emergency move despite low market-implied odds.

I assess a high probability that at least one BLS CPI monthly report in 2026 will show year-over-year inflation above 4.0%, driven by sticky services inflation, housing rent dynamics, and upside risks from energy and base effects; I estimate a 92% chance of Yes.

I assess Oh Se-hoon has a modest but not dominant chance to win the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, with a probability of 32% based on incumbency and campaign resources offset by Seoul's liberal-leaning electorate and potential national political headwinds.

I assess a low but non-negligible chance that Bitcoin will touch $200,000 by Dec 31, 2026; the market currently prices that outcome as very unlikely, and I give it modestly higher odds due to tail-risk catalysts and crypto's history of parabolic moves.

I assess a 12% probability that China will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan by the end of 2026, a figure modestly above market pricing that reflects growing PLA capability and political incentives offset by strong deterrence and high costs of invasion.

I assess a low probability (10%) that the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average for Strait of Hormuz arrivals will reach or exceed 60 by May 31, 2026, because the short time window and the smoothing effect of the 7-day average make a rapid rebound unlikely absent a clear, immediate security and commercial signal.

I assess an 18% probability that the New York Yankees will win the 2026 World Series, modestly above the market-implied 13.5% because of the franchise's financial flexibility, consistent contention profile, and ability to upgrade during the season, tempered by pitching depth, AL East competition, and postseason variance.

I assess a 72% probability that IMF Portwatch will report a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60 at least once by December 31, 2026, because the threshold is reachable given normalizing regional conditions, commercial incentives to use the route, and the fact that a single transient rebound or a data revision can satisfy the condition.