US real GDP growth in 2035?

The strongest anchor for this event is the BLS projection that real GDP grows at about 2.1% annually from 2025 to 2035, which sits squarely in the 1.6% to 2.5% bucket and is only a modest step down from the prior decade’s 2.4% pace. That makes a middling-growth outcome the most natural baseline, especially because long-run U.S. trend growth rarely collapses to the extreme low or negative bands without a major structural shock.

Recent quarterly data complicate the picture but do not justify assuming collapse. Q2 2026 real GDP came in at 1.5% annualized, slower than Q1, yet underlying private domestic demand was much stronger, suggesting headline weakness may overstate the economy’s true forward momentum. That supports a view that the economy can cool without entering a prolonged near-zero growth regime.

The main reason to avoid a very bullish forecast is that long-horizon growth usually drifts down as demographics, productivity, and investment patterns mature. The CRFB-cited fiscal-year tracker also points to growth around the high-2% area under OMB assumptions, but that is not directly comparable to the calendar-year framing here; taken together, the evidence still points to a center of mass around roughly 2% rather than a dramatic slowdown.

Relative to the market, the 0.0% or below bucket and the sub-1.0% buckets look somewhat overallocated if the event is meant to reflect a normal long-run growth rate in 2035 rather than a recession year. The market’s 85% No price suggests it expects the Yes side to miss quite broadly, but the projection data make a 1.6% to 2.5% outcome materially more plausible than the pricing implies.