Bank of Russia decision in September?

The decision appears to be a narrow call between keeping the key rate at 14% and delivering a modest 25 bp cut to 13.75%. Since the last move was a July reduction, the Bank has already signaled some willingness to ease, but the latest reporting suggests officials are still waiting for clearer confirmation that inflation is cooling sustainably rather than temporarily. On balance, that makes a cut possible but not the central expectation, which is why a probability in the high 30s feels more appropriate than a coin flip.

The strongest case for a cut is that the Bank may want to continue normalizing policy if disinflation is broadening and credit demand is softening. A small cut would fit the pattern of cautious, incremental easing rather than a large pivot, and several analyst roundups still keep that option live. If incoming data before the meeting show weaker price pressure and no renewed inflation surprise, the Bank could judge that a symbolic reduction is safe enough to support activity without undermining credibility.

The strongest case against a cut is that the Bank of Russia has repeatedly emphasized inflation risks, especially core inflation and the need for more evidence before easing further. The recent news flow also suggests the consensus is leaning toward a pause, with some coverage explicitly treating hold as the base case and others describing the probability split as close but not cut-favored. Because the market question is about any decrease, the bar is not extremely high, but the current evidence still points slightly more toward caution than toward immediate easing.