Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

On fundamentals, this is a race between two private AI leaders that both have strong incentives to stay private as long as possible. OpenAI has the broader brand, larger market presence, and more reasons to eventually pursue a public listing once its governance and structure are sufficiently simplified, while Anthropic has raised heavily and could also choose a similar path if capital needs or employee liquidity pressures increase. The key issue is not whether either can IPO by 2040, but which one clears the legal, structural, and strategic hurdles first. That makes OpenAI the modest favorite, but not by a large margin, because both firms can plausibly remain private for years and either one could change course quickly if market conditions become attractive.

Arguments against a high Yes probability are substantial. OpenAI’s unusual governance structure, strategic partnerships, and product-era volatility could delay or complicate a conventional IPO, and Anthropic may intentionally avoid public-market scrutiny even longer if private funding remains abundant. The AI market may continue rewarding private giants with huge late-stage financings, reducing pressure to list. In addition, an IPO is not inevitable for either company if one is acquired, restructures in an unexpected way, or simply stays private through 2040.

Against that backdrop, the current market price of 0.9 for Yes looks too confident. A 90% implied probability assumes that one of these firms will not only eventually go public, but do so before the other with very little room for structural delays or strategic reversals. That is too strong for a binary about two privately controlled AI companies with uncertain timelines. A more defensible view is that OpenAI is favored, but the true probability is closer to the high-50s than the 90s, so the market appears meaningfully overpriced on Yes.