Will any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?
I still think a Yes outcome is more likely than not, but the key distinction is that New York has only enacted an executive order so far, not the kind of legislation this market requires. The governor’s action and the already-passed New York bill make a statutory moratorium plausible by year-end, though not guaranteed.
Analysis
The biggest development in the last week is that New York’s governor signed an executive order on July 14 creating a temporary statewide pause on new hyperscale data centers, but that is not the same thing as enacted legislation for this market’s purposes. The New York Legislature had already passed the Responsible Data Center Development Act in June, but Reuters and AP both noted that the bill had not yet been signed into law when the executive order was issued. That means the market is still waiting on an actual statutory enactment, even though the policy direction is now very clearly established.
The case for Yes is that New York is now functionally leading the country on this issue, and the political barriers to a statutory moratorium look lower than they did a month ago. The legislature has already sent a moratorium bill through both chambers, the governor publicly endorsed the broader policy, and the official state release says she directed agencies to build a regulatory framework around the pause. NCSL’s July 1 update also showed that lawmakers in 15 states were still considering moratorium bills, which suggests New York is not a one-off anomaly but the front edge of a broader policy wave.
The main reason to stay below the market price is that the executive order may reduce the need for immediate legislative action, which is exactly the sort of thing that can leave a passed bill unsigned or parked. Maine already showed that a legislature-passed moratorium can still fail at the governor stage, and most of the other state efforts remain introduced, failed, or continued rather than enacted. So the probability of some state enacting a qualifying moratorium by December 31 is high, but it is not close to certain because the current headline event is an EO, not yet the legally qualifying enactment.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: New York has already passed a statewide moratorium bill, so the remaining step is gubernatorial action rather than a fresh legislative push.
- Arguments for Yes: The governor’s July 14 executive order shows clear support for a moratorium and lowers the odds that the concept dies politically.
- Arguments for Yes: At least 15 states were still considering data center bans or moratoriums as of July 1, so there is still a live pipeline outside New York.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The new New York action is an executive order, and this market requires legislation enacted into law, which has not happened yet.
- Arguments against Yes: A governor can choose to rely on executive authority instead of signing the bill, leaving the statutory version unresolved through year-end.
- Arguments against Yes: Similar moratorium efforts have already stalled or failed in several states, showing that momentum does not automatically translate into enactment.
Key drivers
- New York already has a passed moratorium bill waiting for final action, which is the clearest path to a qualifying enactment.
- The governor’s executive order strongly signals policy alignment with a statewide pause on large data centers.
- Broader state-level concern about grid strain, power costs, and water use keeps the issue politically active in multiple legislatures.
Risk factors
- The governor may decide the executive order is sufficient and never sign the bill.
- Any statutory language could be delayed, amended, vetoed, or allowed to die without final enactment.
- Other states may continue to introduce moratorium bills without actually passing one into law.
Scenarios
Best case
New York signs the passed moratorium bill into law soon, or another state unexpectedly enacts a qualifying statewide moratorium later in 2026, making Yes a clean and early resolution.
Most likely
New York remains the best candidate, and the bill either gets signed after the executive order or stays unresolved long enough that the market spends most of the year pricing in a high but not certain Yes.
Worst case
The New York bill never gets signed and the executive order remains the only statewide pause, while other states’ bills stall or fail, leading to a No resolution.
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