Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

The latest week points to a fragile and uneven reopening rather than a clean normalization. Reuters reported that tanker traffic fell to a two-month low after renewed U.S.-Iran hostilities and vessel attacks, and another Reuters update said daily passages through the strait slid from 37 to 15 over a few days. That is well below the level needed to sustain a 7-day average at or above 60, so the market still needs a substantial rebound from current conditions.

The broader backdrop is somewhat better than it was in the spring, which keeps a Yes outcome alive. On July 8, the IMF said its forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in mid-July and normalizes by March 2027, while Reuters described 36 commodity carriers transiting in a single day in late June, the highest level since the war began. That means the gap to 60 is not impossible to close if confidence returns quickly, but it still requires a meaningful expansion from the traffic levels seen in early July.

My independent view is that the market is still a bit too optimistic. The resolution only needs one qualifying 7-day average, so a sharp de-escalation could trigger Yes even without a full return to pre-war commerce, but the newest headlines point the other way: more incidents, more caution, and less traffic. The IMF and other multilaterals are explicitly warning that uncertainty remains high, which makes a year-end crossing above 60 plausible but not the base case.