Clarity Act signed into law in 2026?
The bill has real momentum because it already cleared the House and Senate committee, but the path to final enactment is still narrow. I think the market is a bit optimistic at 33%; my estimate is 28% for a signed law by the end of 2026.
Analysis
The strongest argument for enactment is that this is no longer an abstract proposal. The House passed the CLARITY Act in 2025, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced it in May 2026, so the bill has already cleared two major institutional hurdles and has visible support from the administration and much of the crypto industry. That matters because legislation with an existing bipartisan committee vote has a much better chance than a bill that is still stuck at the draft stage.
The main problem is that committee approval is not remotely the same as a finished law. As of mid-July 2026, the Senate floor calendar is crowded with nominations and other priorities, while the chamber is heading toward its summer slowdown and then the broader election-year drag. The latest reporting also suggests negotiators still have not secured durable Democratic buy-in, especially around ethics restrictions tied to senior officials’ crypto ties. Without a broader coalition, the bill faces a difficult path through floor debate and cloture.
Recent political developments are probably making the bill harder, not easier, in the near term. New disclosures showing President Trump’s large crypto-related income have intensified Democratic pressure for stronger conflict-of-interest language, and that creates a direct negotiating obstacle because the White House wants the bill passed. Even if there is a compromise draft soon, the window for passing something this complex in both chambers and getting a signature before December 31 is limited. I think the market is correctly treating this as a live possibility, but the combination of unresolved ethics disputes, scarce floor time, and election-year incentives keeps the true odds below the current price.
On balance, the most likely outcome is continued negotiation with no final enactment in 2026, even though a late-year surprise deal remains possible. If leaders decide to spend floor time on it and a narrow ethics fix unlocks enough Democrats, the bill could still move quickly. But absent that, the safer expectation is another delay into 2027 rather than a completed law this year.
Arguments
For
- Arguments for Yes: The bill already passed the House, so only the Senate and a presidential signature remain.
- Arguments for Yes: The Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill, showing it has at least some bipartisan support and procedural momentum.
Against
- Arguments against Yes: The Senate still has not brought the measure to the floor, and the July schedule is dominated by other priorities.
- Arguments against Yes: Ethics and conflict-of-interest disputes, especially around Trump and crypto, are still blocking broader Democratic support.
Key drivers
- Senate floor time is limited by summer recess and election-year competition from other legislation.
- The administration and crypto industry are strongly pushing for passage, which keeps the bill alive.
- Democratic willingness to support the bill likely depends on tougher ethics language than Republicans may want to accept.
Risk factors
- A narrow bipartisan committee vote may not translate into the 60 votes needed to overcome a Senate filibuster.
- New political controversy around presidential crypto profits could harden opposition and delay negotiations further.
- If the bill misses the late-summer and fall windows, it could slip into lame-duck bargaining or lose momentum entirely.
Scenarios
Best case
Negotiators quickly finalize a compromise with stronger ethics and anti-money-laundering language, the Senate schedules and passes the bill in the fall, the House accepts the final version, and the President signs it before year-end.
Most likely
The bill continues to attract attention and occasional momentum, but unresolved conflicts and a crowded calendar prevent final passage in 2026, leaving it unfinished or pushed into a later legislative window.
Worst case
Ethics concerns and partisan fights keep Democrats from providing enough votes, floor time gets consumed by must-pass legislation, and the CLARITY Act fails to complete the Senate process before December 31, 2026.
More from this day
- techPolymarketEnded
Best AI model on July 18?
AI14%MKT93%Edge-79HypedI think claude-opus-4-6-thinking is materially less likely than the market price suggests to be the overall #1 model on July 18, 2026. The current leaderboard evidence points to Claude Fable 5 as the incumbent leader, so I put Yes at 14%.
- HealthKalshi2y
What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
AI80%MKT28%Edge+52Hidden GemAssuming the market's binary question is whether the 4‑year (2025–2028) average annual measles cases will be >= 2,000, I assess an 80% probability that the average will meet or exceed that threshold.
- EconomicsKalshi2y
Will there be a Trump economic boom?
AI8%MKT51%Edge-43HypedIndependent assessment: very unlikely — I assign an 8% chance that any U.S. quarterly real GDP (annualized) will exceed 5% in Q1 2025–Q4 2028. The data and policy environment point strongly against a sustained or one‑off 5%+ quarter, though low‑probability shocks could still produce a spike.