Bank of Russia decision in July?

The starting point is that the Bank of Russia already cut the key rate by 25 bp to 14.25% on June 19, 2026, and Governor Nabiullina said that neither another cut nor its size was predetermined at any specific meeting. The July 1 summary also said the bank would assess the need for further easing based on the sustainability of disinflation, inflation expectations, and domestic and external risks, which signals that a July cut is possible but not guaranteed.

The latest inflation data are the main reason to be cautious on Yes. Rosstat’s June release showed monthly CPI accelerating to 0.87% and annual inflation rising to 6.02%, while the central bank had already warned that June inflation would be affected by the fuel-price spike and that higher petrol prices could feed expectations. At the same time, households’ one-year inflation expectations fell to 12.4% in June, companies’ price expectations eased to 15.9, and analysts’ end-2026 inflation forecast dropped to 5.3%, so the disinflation story is not broken even though it is still fragile.

On balance, the macro backdrop is mixed rather than clearly supportive of another immediate cut. The Bank of Russia said market participants revised their expected policy path after the June decision and that longer-term OFZ yields rose, while annual money-supply growth and credit growth accelerated, both of which can loosen financial conditions even if the policy rate is still high. Against that, the central bank also noted that current price growth had slowed earlier in the spring, that underlying inflation had eased, and that the economy was only growing at a moderate pace, so another 25 bp cut remains plausible if policymakers decide the June inflation shock is temporary. That combination makes a pause the slightly more likely outcome, but not by a huge margin.