Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

The primary structural constraint is timing: the market requires a 7-day moving average >=60 on any date up to June 30, and there are only a few days remaining to form such a seven-day window, which means most of the average is already fixed by prior daily counts. If the most recent published 7-day moving average is substantially below 60, a single-day spike cannot by itself produce a qualifying 7-day average unless preceding days are already near the threshold or revisions are applied to earlier days within the allowed window. Conversely, if the existing recent seven-day stretch is close to 60, a modest but sustained increase in daily transits could push the average over the line, but that scenario requires favorable prior data that the market price likely reflects as absent.

Market sentiment, as reflected by the current price (Yes ~2.35%), implies participants collectively think the chances are extremely low; the very low price also indicates either broad confidence that traffic remains depressed or concentration of information among a few large traders. The high event volume suggests significant capital has already been committed to the 'No' outcome, which can depress the implied probability below a rational baseline if traders are asymmetric in access to on-the-ground information or if liquidity-driven selling dominated early. I treat the market price as a strong signal but adjust upward because of two sources of upside risk: permissible data revisions up to publication on June 30 and the possibility of a short window of anomalous traffic (e.g., convoy scheduling or concentrated tanker movements).

External drivers matter a lot in the remaining days: rapid de-escalation of regional tensions, a sudden surge in crude liftings that route ships through the Strait, or coordinated scheduling (e.g., tankers timed to transit through a narrow interval) could cause multiple higher daily counts in a row and lift the 7-day average, but these events are rare on such short notice. On the flip side, continued security concerns, ongoing rerouting of vessels to alternative passages, and continuing operational restrictions at Gulf ports all push expected traffic lower. Given the short horizon, the most realistic route to 'Yes' is either (a) the already published recent daily series is much closer to 60 than market participants believe, (b) several higher-than-normal transit days occur in immediate succession, or (c) upward revisions to previously published daily counts within the allowed timeframe materially raise the 7-day average.