Which Supreme Court justices will resign during Trump's term?
I assess a low probability that Justice Clarence Thomas will voluntarily resign during Trump's term — about 15% — because he has shown no indication of stepping down, historically long tenure, and strong incentives to remain unless forced by health or scandal.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market prices):**
Clarence Thomas is one of the Court's longest-serving justices (appointed 1991) and as of the present reporting there is *no public indication* that he plans to resign during Trump's term. At age ~78–81 over the period of interest (Jan 2025–Jan 2029), his mortality and health risk increase, but voluntary resignation/retirement is a different signal than death in office. Historically, justices who are ideologically aligned with the sitting president are *more likely* to time retirements to enable a like-minded successor; however, many long-tenured conservative justices have also chosen to remain on the bench into advanced age (Scalia died in office; Thomas has repeatedly remained active despite controversies). Thomas has not signaled intent to step down, has continued to participate in major opinions, and there are no credible mainstream reports forecasting retirement. Those are strong negative signals for a resignation probability.
Countervailing factors include: increased age and medical risk over a four-year window (some chance of incapacitation or a decision to step aside), the political logic that a conservative justice might prefer to retire under a Republican president to maximize a conservative successor (Trump specifically), and the nonzero possibility of an unforeseen ethics scandal or personal event prompting resignation. We must also account for the practical fact that some resignations are announced with short notice; lack of reporting today does not imply impossibility later.
Balancing these considerations, I estimate the independent probability that Thomas will *voluntarily resign/retire* during Trump’s term at **15%**. This is driven primarily by: (1) absence of signals or stated intent to resign, (2) his historical pattern of long continuous service and recent active participation, and (3) the behavioral tendency of veteran justices to remain unless compelled by health or scandal. Age/health and political incentives nudge probability upward but not enough to overcome the strong inertia.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (compare to current market prices):**
Current market price: Yes 0.32 (32%). My independent estimate (15%) is materially lower than the market. Possible reasons the market is pricing a higher chance include:
- **Confusion between resignation and leaving the Court for any reason (including death):** Some traders may conflate "leave the bench" with "resign," inflating Yes prices because mortality risk over four years is higher than voluntary resignation risk. If some participants treat death as a trigger for a Yes contract, that would raise the market price above the true voluntary-resignation probability.
- **Political/strategic priors:** Traders may overweight the political incentive for Thomas to retire during a Republican presidency to secure a like-minded successor. This is plausible in the abstract but depends on Thomas' personal preferences; historically he has not signaled this behavior.
- **Risk premium for scandal/rapid developments:** Markets can price in tail events (sudden scandal, health emergency, forced resignation) more heavily than historical rates suggest. Given controversies surrounding Thomas in the past, some traders may assign elevated probability to a scandal-triggered resignation.
- **Liquidity and information asymmetries:** With ~74k contracts of volume, there is meaningful interest, and some large players with private information or different event definitions could skew price. Herding or anchoring at round numbers (30%) is also possible.
Given these factors, I believe the market is likely *overpricing* the probability of voluntary resignation by a factor of ~2x. If the market price reflects a mix of legitimate voluntary-resignation odds plus death/leave-in-any-form odds and an elevated scandal premium, that would explain the discrepancy. If one strictly interprets the question as *voluntary resignation/retirement* (not death), the 32% market is likely too high relative to the best public-information estimate of ~15%.
Practical trading implication: if you accept my definition and analysis, Yes contracts at 32% are overpriced relative to my 15% estimate; No is underpriced. However, be mindful of the market’s possible inclusion of other tail events or private information that I can't observe.
Arguments
For
- Age and multi-year risk of health decline increase the probability that he may leave the bench during the four-year window.
- There is a clear political incentive for a conservative justice to step down while a Republican president can appoint a successor, and that logic is commonly weighted by market participants.
- Past controversies create a nonzero chance that a scandal or ethics development could precipitate a resignation.
Against
- No current reporting, statements, or other signals indicate Thomas intends to resign; he remains active on the Court.
- Historical behavior of long-tenured conservative justices includes remaining on the bench into advanced age; Thomas has followed that pattern so far.
- Voluntary retirement is a personal decision; many justices prefer to stay to influence jurisprudence rather than time an exit for political reasons.
Key drivers
- Thomas's age and general health trajectory over 2025–2029 (raises probability modestly)
- Absence of any public signal of intent to resign or retire (strongly lowers probability)
- Political incentive to retire under a Republican president (raises probability slightly)
- Potential for sudden ethics scandal or incapacitating health event (low-probability, high-impact driver)
Risk factors
- Ambiguity in market/event definition (some traders may count death or removal as 'resign'),
- Unforeseen health deterioration or personal circumstances that could prompt prompt resignation,
- Large informed traders or news leaks that could rapidly move the market,
- Rapid emergence of credible allegations or scandals that change incentives and public pressure
Scenarios
Best case
Thomas chooses to retire voluntarily early in Trump's term (e.g., within 2025) to allow a conservative successor; this would likely happen with short notice and be accompanied by internal or family reasons and would validate higher market Yes prices.
Most likely
Thomas remains on the bench without announcing retirement, participates in Court business, and does not voluntarily resign during Trump's term. The most likely way he leaves would be death or incapacitation (not a voluntary resignation), which under a strict reading results in No for this market.
Worst case
Thomas neither resigns nor signals retirement and remains on the bench throughout Trump's term, possibly dying in office or simply serving through 2029; this produces a No outcome and would render Yes positions worthless.
More from this day
- FinancialsKalshi1y
What sector will SpaceX be assigned to in the S&P?
AI6%MKT93%Edge-87HypedI assess a low probability (~6%) that SpaceX will be assigned to Communication Services; the preponderance of evidence (Morningstar/CRSP and GICS-style classification logic) points to an Industrials assignment.
- politicsPolymarketEnded
Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
AI40%MKT5%Edge+35Hidden GemGiven the short two-week window and the history of periodic mediated contacts, a meeting is more likely than not, but nontrivial logistical, political, and incentive barriers make a failure to meet within this window plausible; I assess a 40% chance that no qualifying in-person US–Iran diplomatic meeting will occur by June 30, 2026.
- SportsKalshi1y
Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam before 2028?
AI35%MKT4%Edge+31Hidden GemScottie Scheffler has a meaningful path to complete the career Grand Slam before 2028, but it is far from a longshot — my independent assessment is that he has a ~35% chance, considerably higher than the current market price of 6%.