Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
Given current filing activity, structural incentives, and a long (14-year) horizon, it is highly likely that at least one of OpenAI or Anthropic will complete a public listing before 2040 — I assess this at 95%.
Analysis
**Stage 1 — Blind analysis (ignore market price):**
OpenAI has publicly confirmed a confidential S‑1 filing (late May/early June 2026) and has reported working with major banks and targeting a possible September 2026 listing window, although it retains discretion to delay. Anthropic reportedly submitted confidential IPO paperwork earlier than OpenAI but has not provided a public timeline or clear near‑term target. Taken purely on the available facts and patterns in technology finance, the probability that *at least one* of these two companies will complete a public listing by 2040 is extremely high.
Why so high? The business and investor incentives to access public liquidity are strong: very large private valuations, broad employee ownership and deferred compensation, and institutional investors who typically realize returns through public markets or M&A. Both firms face continuing capital needs to fund compute, R&D, and global expansion; public markets are a natural path to raise those resources. Additionally, the S‑1 confidential filing is a concrete technical step that historically precedes a public offering within a reasonable horizon (even if timing shifts). The 14‑year horizon to 2040 is long enough that even multi‑year regulatory, technical, or market delays are unlikely to prevent both firms from eventually pursuing public markets.
Countervailing blind considerations reduce but do not eliminate the probability: unique governance (OpenAI’s capped‑profit model and contractual constraints), extreme targeted valuations (the cited up‑to‑$1T figure could complicate pricing), possible strategic acquisitions (a buyer could acquire a firm pre‑IPO), and heightened regulatory scrutiny of leading AI companies could delay or block IPOs. Nonetheless none of these risks — taken individually or together — plausibly drive the probability of *no* IPO by either firm before 2040 to a high level.
Net of the above, my independent (stage‑1) estimate that at least one of OpenAI or Anthropic will IPO by 2040 is **95%**.
**Stage 2 — Market calibration (use market price):**
Current market pricing: Yes 0.80, No 0.20 (volume ~271.9k contracts). My independent 95% is meaningfully higher than the market's 80%.
Reasons the market might be pricing lower: - Some traders discount long‑horizon outcomes aggressively or focus on near‑term uncertainty (e.g., 'will OpenAI actually list in 2026?'), conflating near‑term timing uncertainty with the 14‑year horizon. That compresses the perceived chance of *any* listing before 2040. - Participants may overweight extreme downside tail risks: a full regulatory ban on certain commercial activities, nationalization, or binary outcomes (major acquisitions that keep the companies private indefinitely) — events that are low probability but heavily weighted by some traders. - Ambiguity in the market question or differing interpretations (some traders might read the question as 'which firm will IPO first?' rather than 'will either IPO before 2040?') could create pricing friction.
Why I think the market is moderately mispriced (understating probability): - The confidential S‑1 for OpenAI is a hard, observable action that materially raises the near‑term baseline for at least one IPO within the next few years; confidential filing historically correlates strongly with eventual public filing/IPO within a 1–5 year window. Even if OpenAI delays, the long horizon makes delay non‑fatal to the event. - Anthropic’s earlier confidential filing (reported) increases the chance that one or both will be public sooner, compounding the likelihood. - The sheer economic incentives (liquidity for employees, capital for compute) and investor exit mechanics make at least one IPO highly probable absent extraordinary political/legal intervention.
Calibration conclusion: The market price (80%) is reasonable but conservative versus the facts. I place my capital edge at ~15 percentage points above the market (95% vs 80%), believing much of the remaining uncertainty priced into the market is short‑term or reflects low‑probability catastrophic policy outcomes. Traders who want to bet on the near certainty that these companies will access public markets by 2040 would find the market underpriced relative to my model, but should still account for regulatory and governance tail risks.
Arguments
For
- Concrete progress on filings: OpenAI confidential S‑1 public confirmation is a strong operational signal that an IPO process is underway.
- Large investor and employee liquidity pressures push toward a public offering at some point within a long (14‑year) horizon.
- Banks and deal teams are actively engaged (reported major banks for OpenAI), which reduces execution risk around underwriting and market access.
- Anthropic’s confidential filing (reported earlier) increases the likelihood that at least one of the two reaches the public markets sooner rather than later.
- Public markets are a scalable source of capital for compute and global expansion—key needs for both firms—creating clear financial incentives to list.
Against
- High valuation targets (reported 'up to $1T' for OpenAI) could make pricing and market reception difficult, leading to delays or withdrawal.
- Both companies could be acquired by large tech/cloud firms or enter into strategic deals that leave them private for the long term.
- Regulatory or national security interventions could impose constraints or delays that make IPOs unattractive or impossible within the timeframe.
- Unique corporate/legal structures (e.g., capped‑profit vehicles, contractual governance) may complicate SEC clearance and public investor appetite.
Key drivers
- Observed regulatory filings and S‑1 activity (OpenAI public confirmation of a confidential S‑1 in June 2026).
- Economic incentives for liquidity: huge private valuations, employee equity, and investor exit pressure.
- Capital needs for compute and R&D that favor access to deep public capital markets.
- Corporate governance and legal structuring (OpenAI’s capped‑profit model) which can either complicate or accelerate an IPO depending on how resolved.
- Geopolitical and regulatory environment for advanced AI (export controls, national security reviews, antitrust, new listing restrictions).
Risk factors
- Strategic acquisition: a major tech partner/buyer (e.g., Microsoft or other large cloud provider) could acquire one or both companies before an IPO.
- Sustained regulatory action or legislation that materially restricts commercial pathways or forces structural changes making IPOs unattractive or infeasible.
- Valuation shock or public market volatility causing repeated delays or shelfing of offerings.
- Complex corporate structure or unresolved governance issues that prevent SEC sign‑off or delay registration.
- Interpretation/ambiguity risk: market participants misread the event scope (timing vs. which company first), producing noisy pricing.
Scenarios
Best case
OpenAI proceeds with a public listing in late 2026 or 2027 (or soon thereafter) at a strong valuation, with Anthropic following within a few years. Both firms use IPO proceeds to massively expand compute and product offerings; public investors gain exposure to leading AI franchises. Timeline: OpenAI 2026–2028; Anthropic 2027–2032.
Most likely
OpenAI will list first (most likely in a multi‑year window beginning 2026–2029) given its public S‑1 confirmation and bank engagement; Anthropic will either follow later or be acquired, with its IPO more uncertain but still probable before 2040. At least one IPO occurs well before 2040, with OpenAI the likelier first mover.
Worst case
Regulatory clampdowns, a severe macroshock, or strategic acquisitions prevent either company from listing. One or both are absorbed by large cloud/tech incumbents and remain private under corporate ownership; alternatively, new legislation or nationalization effectively blocks public offerings. Timeline: indefinite (no IPO by 2040).
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