Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

There are fewer than four weeks remaining before the market deadline, so any return to a 7-day moving average ≥60 requires either a sustained increase in daily transit calls beginning almost immediately or a brief but very large spike in arrivals that lifts the 7-day mean. Without recent IMF Portwatch numbers in front of us, the key operational constraint is time: a 7-day moving average is slow to respond to single-day increases and requires multiple consecutive high-count days or a large cluster of arrivals within a short window to cross the threshold.

Market pricing at roughly 15% Yes implies traders expect the combination of ongoing risks and the short time horizon makes normalization unlikely; heavy volume indicates significant attention and some consensus view of low probability. My independent read is somewhat more optimistic than the market because short-term technical fixes (temporary naval convoys, enhanced escorts, or a diplomatic de‑escalation) have historically produced quick upticks in traffic, and a single week of above-normal traffic could produce the qualifying 7-day average if it arrives soon.

Key external drivers include security dynamics (escalation or de‑escalation), shipping industry risk tolerance and insurance pricing, and demand-side factors such as a sudden surge in crude or LNG liftings that route through the Strait; any of these can change volumes quickly. Countervailing structural factors—sustained rerouting through the Cape of Good Hope, higher voyage times and costs, and prolonged market caution—tend to depress transit counts and are more likely to persist unless there is a clear, credible improvement in safety or a decisive diplomatic outcome.

Finally, reporting and data issues matter: IMF Portwatch revisions, late reporting, or short-term anomalies in how arrivals are counted could create or erase qualifying days, so part of the uncertainty is administrative rather than purely physical traffic flow; however, reliance on corrected data is constrained by the market’s rules, which increases the importance of any genuine early-June rebound for meeting the criterion before the cutoff.